Expert Statistician Says Maryland Black Bear Numbers ''Grossly in Error''

Photo: Up Close Picture of a Black Bear staring into the camera

Black Bear Task Force Frequently Asked Questions Legislative History Links and Resources Multimedia Natural History Recent News July 24 Rally for the Bears Would you like to receive the latest campaign news or learn about an event near you? your email address: » Tell Governor Ehrlich and Secretary Franks to Oppose Bear Hunting		About Maryland Bears Expert Statistician Says Maryland Black Bear Numbers "Grossly in Error" ANNAPOLIS, MD (August 24, 2004) - Dr. Phillip I. Good, an expert in mathematical statistics and the author of 32 scholarly publications and six text books, has called Maryland's estimate of the state's black bear population "inappropriate and grossly in error." The Maryland Department of Natural Resources (DNR) estimates there are between 266 and 437 bears in the state, and has proposed allowing 30 trophy hunters to kill bears beginning this October-for the first time in more than half a century. Dr. Good notes that, in analyzing the DNR's data from two population estimates in 1992 and 2000, the agency erroneously concluded that the bear population has grown, while in reality the bear population may not have grown at all or may have even declined. In addition, Dr. Good highlights the differences in the ways the bears were sampled between 1992 and 2000, which makes the data from the two surveys difficult to compare and analyze. He also points out that the analysis of this data by the DNR is erroneous because the survey in 2000 attempted to maximize the number of bears surveyed which may have resulted in an overestimation of the population. "Even if the DNR's data was correct, there would be no need to open a trophy hunt on this small population of a few hundred bears," said Michael Markarian, President of The Fund for Animals. "The fact that the agency does not even have an accurate count of bears in the state is all the more reason to call off the first bear hunt in more than fifty years. Governor Ehrlich wants his agencies to use sound science, but instead they have used junk science and fuzzy math." The Fund for Animals and the Humane Society of the United States have offered $75,000 to augment the state's educational programs to solve bear conflicts, and to compensate farmers fully for agricultural damage caused by bears, if the bear hunt is called off. Governor Ehrlich and the DNR rejected the offer. Dr. Patrice Green, a Baltimore County resident who requested the analysis from Dr. Good, provided this new information to the General Assembly's Joint Committee on Administrative, Executive, and Legislative Review which will vote tomorrow on whether to approve the bear hunt. "Dr. Good's critique of the DNR's scientific basis for the bear hunt shows once again that the DNR simply does not have the science it needs behind its bear hunting proposal," said Dr. Green. A copy of Dr. Good's statistical analysis is available online at: www.MarylandBears.com/docUploads/DrGoodLetter.pdf. For more information on Maryland's black bears, please visit: www.MarylandBears.com.